A Thunderstorm Gale Forecast Method Based on the Objective Classification and Continuous Probability

Potential prediction is an important research content of thunderstorm gale weather forecast, and it still a challenge because the environmental field presents different characteristics under conditions. Using 12-year data Hubei province in central China reanalysis National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this study analyzed percentile distribution physical quantities gale, continuous probability method was adopted to establish forecast models four types situation, which are rear trough type, front periphery western Pacific subtropical high type easterly airflow type. Finally, realized by objective classification criterion operation. The results show that based on can significantly improve detection, also reduce missing alarm rate gale. Moreover, quantitative test 16 processes situations shows has higher detection than bisection method, reduces extreme wind method.